Niklas Vareman

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Epistemic Risk

THE ARTICLES INCLUDED in this thesis centre onwhat can be called the normative basis ofrisk analysis. Since risk analyses are decisionprocedures, they should adhere to norms ofrational decision-making, and this they do.Most risk analysis schemes are built on anotion of the decision theoretic maxim thatthe goal of every decision is to maximizeexpected utility. However, for some thirty yearsnow this maxim has been called into question.The idea is not that it is unreasonable in itself,but that the theoretical construct of which it isa consequence is in some way inappropriate.Idealizations of the theories are criticized forbeing too excessive. They do not properlycovercases where the decision maker haspoor or, as it were, imprecise knowledge. If itis important for a normative decision theoryto be not only ideal as a theoretical construct,but to have, in addition, a prescriptivepurpose,that theory should also be applicableto actual decision makers.

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